Predictive Modeling to Forecast Student Outcomes and Drive Effective Interventions in Online Community College Courses

Volume, Issue - Date: 
Volume 16, Issue 3 - June 2012
Vernon C. Smith, Ph.D., MyCollege Foundation
Adam Lange, Ellucian
Daniel R. Huston, M.A., Rio Salado College
Full article - Free: Click on the file to download.: 
Online Learning, Learning Analytics, Predictive Modeling, Community Colleges, Risk Levels for Online Students, Faculty

Community colleges continue to experience growth in online courses. This growth reflects the need to increase the numbers of students who complete certificates or degrees. Retaining online students, not to mention assuring their success, is a challenge that must be addressed through practical institutional responses. By leveraging existing student information, higher education institutions can build statistical models, or learning analytics, to forecast student outcomes. This is a case study from a community college utilizing learning analytics and the development of predictive models to identify at-risk students based on dozens of key variables.